Updated at 2025-06-26 20:01:38.751025

Conversion successful!
Created: C:/Users/Chris/Python/format_csv.py
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-25
  Number of rows: 5028

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-25
  Number of rows: 5028

=== CALLING bitcoin_analysis_package ===
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-25
  Number of rows: 5028

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-25
  Number of rows: 5028

           time          open           high            low          close  daily_return_percent        day  year  year_return_percent cycle_year  cycle_year_return_percent  quarter  quarter_return_percent month  monthly_return_percent  week  weekly_return_percent half_month  half_monthly_return_percent
5027 2025-06-25  106047.40625  108168.398438  105881.390625  107361.257812              1.238929  Wednesday  2025            15.013078      Year1                  15.013078        2               30.076521  June                2.603241    26               6.311457    2H_June                     1.710628

✅ Complete Bitcoin analysis completed successfully!
=== FINISHED bitcoin_analysis_package ===
           time          open           high            low          close  daily_return_percent        day  year  year_return_percent cycle_year  cycle_year_return_percent  quarter  quarter_return_percent month  monthly_return_percent  week  weekly_return_percent half_month  half_monthly_return_percent
5027 2025-06-25  106047.40625  108168.398438  105881.390625  107361.257812              1.238929  Wednesday  2025            15.013078      Year1                  15.013078        2               30.076521  June                2.603241    26               6.311457    2H_June                     1.710628

Output folder: C:\Users\Chris\Downloads\btc_report\btc_report_2025-06-26.1
Success! PDF saved to: C:\Users\Chris\Downloads\btc_report\btc_report_2025-06-26.1\btc_report_2025-06-26.pdf
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1-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
9 1 October 16.71% 14.6% 72.94% -31.96% 61.22% 425 False 10.93% 12.75% 75% 124 49.98% 48.73% 100% 93 -4.05% -4.46% 33.33% 93 12.82% 28.54% 80.87% 115
1 2 February 11.48% 11.63% 71.21% -31.49% 65.17% 396 False 10.85% 4.71% 50% 116 26.93% 30.1% 75% 112 -5.89% 1.63% 66.67% 84 9.11% 11.06% 100% 84
10 3 November 40.82% 11.54% 65.06% -37.01% 450.16% 415 False 24.9% 25.19% 100% 120 165.87% 54.61% 66.67% 90 -13.89% -16.22% 33.33% 90 2.39% 8.8% 52.17% 115
6 4 July 10.19% 9.92% 69.23% -9.06% 40.61% 403 False 15.4% 13.69% 75% 124 14.7% 15.83% 100% 93 9.59% 16.84% 66.67% 93 -0.68% -4.06% 33.33% 93
0 5 January 5.72% 9.7% 57.54% -32.43% 54.53% 431 False 8.05% 8.22% 75% 124 19.57% 12% 75% 124 -11.31% -16.74% 33.33% 93 1.04% -7.6% 34.44% 90
4 6 May 9.92% 7.06% 57.14% -35.39% 70.36% 434 False 11.01% 10.39% 100% 124 9.38% 1.28% 50% 124 1.75% -15.61% 33.33% 93 17.37% -3.2% 33.33% 93
3 7 April 11.25% 5.4% 64.29% -17.32% 46.47% 420 False 7.41% 5.19% 75% 120 21.22% 20.07% 75% 120 4.94% -1.31% 33.33% 90 9.42% 2.67% 66.67% 90
5 8 June 1.37% 2.12% 56.63% -37.3% 27.85% 415 True 10.71% 11.08% 50% 120 -6.91% -6.02% 47.83% 115 -16.65% -14.77% 33.33% 90 17.51% 14.67% 100% 90
2 9 March 12.27% -1.96% 42.86% -32.83% 186.76% 434 False -3.75% -3.43% 25% 124 51.09% 13.88% 50% 124 -15.03% -17.57% 33.33% 93 9.15% 8.05% 66.67% 93
8 10 September -4.03% -3.11% 36.32% -39.75% 19.8% 413 False 6.54% 6.96% 75% 120 -5.63% -6.97% 0% 90 -9.14% -5.96% 0% 90 -9.92% 2.58% 53.1% 113
11 11 December 6.64% -3.2% 49.65% -34.61% 47.15% 431 False 20.26% 18.54% 75% 124 -4.59% -18.96% 33.33% 93 -8.45% -6.98% 0% 93 12.92% 12% 74.38% 121
7 12 August 1.67% -8.31% 37.71% -26.61% 65.78% 411 False -1.24% -2.85% 50% 124 36.78% 30.92% 100% 93 -13.65% -13.86% 0% 93 -13% -11.26% 0% 101 
2-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
10 1 November-December 40.27% 27.46% 64.29% -41.42% 259.63% 14 False 50.53% 35.82% 100% 4 116.89% 115.72% 66.67% 3 -21.93% -19.35% 0% 3 19.18% 29.92% 75% 4
9 2 October-November 79.1% 25.99% 64.29% -39.81% 786.97% 14 False 39.7% 37.14% 100% 4 315.63% 129.95% 100% 3 -18.21% -11.58% 0% 3 14.07% 15.4% 50% 4
8 3 September-October 11.47% 18.8% 71.43% -58.75% 59.14% 14 False 16.89% 18.8% 100% 4 41.76% 35.91% 100% 3 -12.45% -10.16% 33.33% 3 1.26% 14.53% 50% 4
3 4 April-May 23.47% 17.47% 64.29% -36.48% 114.5% 14 False 18.89% 16.99% 75% 4 34.68% 30.36% 75% 4 5.33% 8.17% 66.67% 3 32.77% -4.41% 33.33% 3
1 5 February-March 34.18% 12.27% 64.29% -43.36% 373.65% 14 False 9.36% 0.57% 50% 4 110.7% 44.28% 75% 4 -18.94% -31.73% 33.33% 3 18.37% 19.99% 100% 3
5 6 June-July 11.07% 11.29% 69.23% -26.61% 79.5% 13 True 28.16% 18.71% 75% 4 4.16% 11.29% 66.67% 3 -10.26% -7.29% 33.33% 3 16.54% 18.02% 100% 3
11 7 December-January 12.6% 9.48% 64.29% -42.33% 68.2% 14 False 42.35% 47.52% 100% 4 -19.51% -28.27% 33.33% 3 -7.21% -14.04% 33.33% 3 21.79% 18.09% 75% 4
4 8 May-June 14.13% 5.83% 69.23% -47.06% 104.26% 13 False 23% 19.82% 100% 4 2.47% -35.99% 33.33% 3 -11.73% -30.92% 33.33% 3 39.81% 11.01% 100% 3
0 9 January-February 18.65% 5.8% 64.29% -25.69% 153.25% 14 False 18.45% 14.02% 100% 4 55.71% 39.64% 75% 4 -19.04% -24.85% 0% 3 7.19% 2.64% 66.67% 3
2 10 March-April 27.83% 1.93% 64.29% -18.66% 317.18% 14 False 0.8% 0.7% 75% 4 92.47% 20.5% 100% 4 -13.99% -12.91% 0% 3 19.5% 26.31% 66.67% 3
6 11 July-August 13.69% 0.49% 53.85% -25.15% 92.02% 13 False 15.31% 10.82% 50% 4 56.56% 43.16% 100% 3 -4.92% 0.49% 66.67% 3 -12.73% -12.46% 0% 3
7 12 August-September 0.14% -5.1% 30.77% -32.98% 51.48% 13 False 5.56% -2.16% 25% 4 28.76% 29.13% 100% 3 -21.39% -16.59% 0% 3 -14.18% -17.03% 0% 3 
3-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
10 1 November-January 47.09% 30.53% 78.57% -45.86% 294.52% 14 False 77.59% 65.94% 100% 4 105% 57.73% 66.67% 3 -22.95% -35.83% 33.33% 3 25.69% 20.64% 100% 4
9 2 October-December 73.81% 27.94% 64.29% -44.02% 479.8% 14 False 70.92% 53.16% 100% 4 235.36% 220.84% 100% 3 -25.5% -17.6% 0% 3 30.04% 25.57% 50% 4
8 3 September-November 74.26% 25.94% 64.29% -60.13% 775.53% 14 False 46.1% 46.78% 100% 4 302.19% 110.12% 100% 3 -26.35% -21.29% 0% 3 6.92% 12.09% 50% 4
4 4 May-July 23.52% 20.24% 61.54% -38.04% 111.72% 13 False 41.29% 35.36% 100% 4 17.93% -28.21% 33.33% 3 -8.28% -16.42% 33.33% 3 37.2% 20.24% 66.67% 3
1 5 February-April 55.46% 15% 57.14% -44.1% 589.06% 14 False 11.74% 7.03% 50% 4 173.9% 57.28% 75% 4 -18.41% -8.94% 0% 3 29.68% 26.37% 100% 3
11 6 December-February 29.23% 14.17% 64.29% -50.86% 170.62% 14 False 87.04% 95.07% 75% 4 -23.75% -24.28% 33.33% 3 -0.78% -4.51% 33.33% 3 33.66% 29.88% 100% 4
2 7 March-May 37.2% 12.29% 71.43% -27.37% 281.48% 14 False 11.63% 10.57% 100% 4 95.25% 58.51% 75% 4 -13.37% -26.51% 33.33% 3 44.46% 17.6% 66.67% 3
7 8 August-October 22.15% 11.97% 69.23% -42.08% 125.3% 13 False 15.21% 15.25% 100% 4 93.79% 108.18% 100% 3 -24.16% -18.42% 0% 3 6.07% 8.95% 66.67% 3
3 9 April-June 28.02% 7.61% 61.54% -56.23% 162.95% 13 False 31.56% 38.62% 75% 4 27.83% -6.25% 33.33% 3 -7.69% -7.81% 33.33% 3 59.19% 7.61% 100% 3
0 10 January-March 54.24% 2.72% 50% -50.08% 626.21% 14 False 15.4% 1.61% 50% 4 182.02% 56.73% 75% 4 -29.83% -37.86% 0% 3 19.75% 10.89% 66.67% 3
6 11 July-September 11.88% 1% 53.85% -38.89% 85.15% 13 False 23.85% 9.48% 75% 4 47.23% 41.2% 100% 3 -12.75% -2.68% 33.33% 3 -14.8% -11.5% 0% 3
5 12 June-August 14.48% 0.42% 61.54% -36.88% 106.02% 13 True 28.62% 15.31% 75% 4 44.23% 26.49% 100% 3 -22.3% -23.7% 0% 3 2.65% 0.42% 66.67% 3 
6-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
8 1 September-February 86.19% 66.01% 64.29% -47.08% 330.1% 14 False 167.12% 168.72% 100% 4 146.54% 117.88% 66.67% 3 -25.88% -45.96% 33.33% 3 44.05% 38.96% 50% 4
9 2 October-March 125.23% 53.4% 78.57% -37.92% 687.47% 14 False 309.75% 260.61% 100% 4 108.09% 60.16% 100% 3 -9.53% -37.3% 33.33% 3 54.63% 38.42% 75% 4
7 3 August-January 103.32% 45.64% 61.54% -62.83% 721.32% 13 False 106.41% 89.49% 100% 4 323.16% 255.38% 66.67% 3 -39.78% -55.83% 0% 3 22.49% 29.44% 66.67% 3
11 4 December-May 104.03% 45.3% 71.43% -44.3% 932.36% 14 False 310.01% 149.6% 100% 4 -37.58% -43.92% 0% 3 44.9% 58.56% 66.67% 3 48.6% 45.3% 100% 4
6 5 July-December 121.97% 45.02% 69.23% -49.84% 718.7% 13 False 102.98% 74.8% 100% 4 404.5% 462.97% 100% 3 -36.4% -42.16% 0% 3 23.14% 38.69% 66.67% 3
0 6 January-June 81.65% 44.32% 69.23% -56.9% 576.21% 13 False 43.8% 46.32% 100% 4 250.72% 155.14% 100% 3 -41.1% -53.99% 0% 3 85.8% 84.33% 66.67% 3
10 7 November-April 135.98% 43.93% 71.43% -38.65% 1171.64% 14 False 404.54% 206.19% 100% 4 41.84% 43.64% 66.67% 3 -1.29% -16.42% 33.33% 3 40.98% 47.41% 75% 4
5 8 June-November 111.69% 42.85% 69.23% -47% 776.49% 13 True 82.81% 75.72% 100% 4 387.4% 332.88% 100% 3 -44.3% -45.97% 0% 3 30.5% 38.57% 66.67% 3
4 9 May-October 54.16% 31.17% 76.92% -45.54% 377% 13 False 63.52% 57.77% 100% 4 142.9% 45.52% 100% 3 -34.02% -31.81% 0% 3 41.12% 31.17% 100% 3
1 10 February-July 75.2% 30.4% 76.92% -39.4% 384.14% 13 False 52.64% 59.83% 100% 4 201.9% 196.25% 100% 3 -30.26% -27.52% 0% 3 84.07% 30.4% 100% 3
2 11 March-August 62.14% 12.04% 61.54% -53.59% 297.45% 13 False 41.85% 33.7% 75% 4 194.46% 281.75% 100% 3 -32.92% -31.97% 0% 3 51.93% 12.04% 66.67% 3
3 12 April-September 44.76% -3.17% 46.15% -57.33% 303.8% 13 False 63.26% 57.17% 75% 4 103.52% 32.2% 66.67% 3 -25.36% -14.01% 0% 3 31.44% -3.17% 33.33% 3
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Analysis includes data from 14 years: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year):
2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07%
2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%
2020 (Cycle Year 4): +303.87%
2012 (Cycle Year 4): +164.80%
2023 (Cycle Year 3): +154.34%
2016 (Cycle Year 4): +122.74%
2024 (Cycle Year 4): +111.33%
2019 (Cycle Year 3): +87.48%
2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18%
2015 (Cycle Year 3): +37.31%
2014 (Cycle Year 2): -57.44%
2011 (Cycle Year 3): -57.98%
2022 (Cycle Year 2): -65.41%
2018 (Cycle Year 2): -72.53%

Average Year-End Return: +536.71%
Median Year-End Return: +111.33%

Returns by Cycle Year:
Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021):
  Average: +2261.79%
  Sample size: 3 years
Cycle Year 2 (years: 2014, 2022, 2018):
  Average: -65.12%
  Sample size: 3 years
Cycle Year 3 (years: 2023, 2019, 2015, 2011):
  Average: +55.29%
  Sample size: 4 years
Cycle Year 4 (years: 2020, 2012, 2016, 2024):
  Average: +175.69%
  Sample size: 4 years
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Analysis includes 3 years matching cycle year(s) Year 1: 2013, 2017, 2021

Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year):
2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07%
2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%
2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18%

Average Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +2261.79%
Median Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%

Returns by Cycle Year:
Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021):
  Average: +2261.79%
  Sample size: 3 years

Calculating best fit line from start to end of data...
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============================================================
BEST FIT LINE FROM START TO END SUMMARY:
============================================================
Total Data Period: 5028 days
R-squared: 0.886864
Scale Type: Log Scale
Daily Growth Rate: 0.1828%
Annual Growth Rate: 94.77%

Historical Performance:
Start Price: $10.90
End Price: $107361.26
Total Change: $107350.36 (984865.67%)

1000-Day Projection:
Projected Price: $1546837.38
Projected Change: $1439476.12 (1340.78%)

Valuation Oscillator Summary:
Current Deviation: -56.89%
Max Overvaluation: 1065.33%
Max Undervaluation: -92.28%
🟢 Currently UNDERVALUED relative to long-term trend

Finding top 3 best fitting linear regression channels for BTC (log scale)...

Top 3 Best Fitting Linear Regression Channels (Log Scale):
================================================================================

1. Window Size: 1000 days
   R-squared: 0.935873
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.1946%
   Annual Growth Rate: 103.32%
   Price Change: $87936.26 (452.70%)
   Start Price: $19425.00
   End Price: $107361.26

2. Window Size: 750 days
   R-squared: 0.880095
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.1952%
   Annual Growth Rate: 103.73%
   Price Change: $81013.26 (307.47%)
   Start Price: $26348.00
   End Price: $107361.26

3. Window Size: 90 days
   R-squared: 0.778500
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.3613%
   Annual Growth Rate: 272.98%
   Price Change: $22982.26 (27.24%)
   Start Price: $84379.00
   End Price: $107361.26

Plotting the top 3 regression channels with adaptive projections...
(Windows ≤100 days: +30d projection, Windows >100 days: +180d projection)
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Results stored in 'top_channels' variable

============================================================
SUMMARY - TOP 3 BEST FITTING CHANNELS:
============================================================

#1. 1000 days | R² = 0.935873
     Annual Growth: 103.32%
     Price Range: $19425 → $107361 (452.7%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $127,098 ($95,206 - $169,675)
     +60 days: $134,732 ($100,918 - $179,876)
     +90 days: $142,824 ($106,973 - $190,690)

#2. 750 days | R² = 0.880095
     Annual Growth: 103.73%
     Price Range: $26348 → $107361 (307.5%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $127,141 ($93,552 - $172,791)
     +60 days: $134,799 ($99,176 - $183,219)
     +90 days: $142,919 ($105,137 - $194,277)

#3. 90 days | R² = 0.778500
     Annual Growth: 272.98%
     Price Range: $84379 → $107361 (27.2%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $126,880 ($114,315 - $140,825)
     +60 days: $141,377 ($126,856 - $157,561)
     +90 days: $157,532 ($140,611 - $176,488)

========================================================================================================================
                           MONTE CARLO SIMULATION SUMMARY TABLE
========================================================================================================================
Method                    Median   Risk/  99% >    95% >    75% >    Median   75% <    95% <    99% <   
Name                      Change   Reward Above    Above    Above    Price    Below    Below    Below   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard GBM (Normal)      +22.9%   3.8:1  $50,003 $67,362 $100,428 $131,956 $174,405 $260,240 $345,021
Fat Tails (Student-t)       +9.4%   2.2:1  $-9,819 $44,813 $85,793 $117,496 $157,449 $241,841 $350,328
Skewed Normal              +27.0%   4.3:1  $59,362 $75,626 $106,700 $136,333 $172,789 $242,823 $306,491
Historical Bootstrap       +24.0%   3.6:1  $49,216 $66,730 $102,037 $133,093 $172,523 $254,665 $340,660
Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)  +20.7%   2.9:1  $16,915 $53,256 $95,553 $129,569 $172,524 $263,412 $361,054
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE ACROSS METHODS     +20.8%   3.4:1  $33,135 $61,558 $98,102 $129,689 $169,938 $252,596 $340,711
MEDIAN ACROSS METHODS      +22.9%   3.6:1  $49,216 $66,730 $100,428 $131,956 $172,524 $254,665 $345,021
========================================================================================================================

🎯 CONSENSUS FORECAST (Average of All Methods):
• Expected Return (90 days): +20.8%
• Target Price: $129,689
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.4:1
• 95% Confidence Range: $61,558 to $252,596
• Extreme Downside (5% chance): Below $61,558 (-42.7%)
• Extreme Upside (5% chance): Above $252,596 (+135.3%)
• 📈 Probability of Profit: 68.0% chance of making money
• 📉 Probability of Loss: 32.0% chance of losing money

================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (90 Days)
                    Method: Fat Tails (Student-t)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +9.4% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 2.2:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $-9,819
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $44,813
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $85,793
→ Median value in 90 days $117,496
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $157,449
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $241,841
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $350,328
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $44,813 (-58.3%)
→ VaR (1%): $-9,819 (-109.1%)

📈 PRICE CHART WITH MONTE CARLO LEVELS:
--------------------------------------------------
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================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (90 Days)
                    Method: Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +20.7% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 2.9:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $16,915
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $53,256
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $95,553
→ Median value in 90 days $129,569
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $172,524
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $263,412
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $361,054
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $53,256 (-50.4%)
→ VaR (1%): $16,915 (-84.2%)

📈 PRICE CHART WITH MONTE CARLO LEVELS:
--------------------------------------------------
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========================================================================================================================
                           MONTE CARLO SIMULATION SUMMARY TABLE
========================================================================================================================
Method                    Median   Risk/  99% >    95% >    75% >    Median   75% <    95% <    99% <   
Name                      Change   Reward Above    Above    Above    Price    Below    Below    Below   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard GBM (Normal)      +54.1%   7.2:1  $42,184 $62,847 $112,044 $165,435 $243,705 $429,331 $648,170
Fat Tails (Student-t)      +17.8%   3.1:1  $-89,518 $21,396 $77,303 $126,445 $197,752 $377,263 $618,740
Skewed Normal              +66.4%  10.8:1  $56,020 $78,830 $127,334 $178,664 $252,209 $416,314 $595,843
Historical Bootstrap       +57.9%   7.3:1  $41,833 $63,466 $112,711 $169,499 $247,093 $429,823 $660,539
Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)  +48.7%   4.7:1  $-9,445 $37,229 $99,715 $159,693 $239,489 $433,948 $713,248
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE ACROSS METHODS     +49.0%   6.6:1  $ 8,215 $52,754 $105,821 $159,947 $236,049 $417,336 $647,308
MEDIAN ACROSS METHODS      +54.1%   7.2:1  $41,833 $62,847 $112,044 $165,435 $243,705 $429,331 $648,170
========================================================================================================================

🎯 CONSENSUS FORECAST (Average of All Methods):
• Expected Return (90 days): +49.0%
• Target Price: $159,947
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 6.6:1
• 95% Confidence Range: $52,754 to $417,336
• Extreme Downside (5% chance): Below $52,754 (-50.9%)
• Extreme Upside (5% chance): Above $417,336 (+288.7%)
• 📈 Probability of Profit: 74.0% chance of making money
• 📉 Probability of Loss: 26.0% chance of losing money

================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (188 Days)
                    Method: Fat Tails (Student-t)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +17.8% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 3.1:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $-89,518
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $21,396
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $77,303
→ Median value in 188 days $126,445
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $197,752
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $377,263
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $618,740
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $21,396 (-80.1%)
→ VaR (1%): $-89,518 (-183.4%)

📈 PRICE CHART WITH MONTE CARLO LEVELS:
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================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (188 Days)
                    Method: Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +48.7% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 4.7:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $-9,445
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $37,229
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $99,715
→ Median value in 188 days $159,693
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $239,489
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $433,948
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $713,248
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $37,229 (-65.3%)
→ VaR (1%): $-9,445 (-108.8%)

📈 PRICE CHART WITH MONTE CARLO LEVELS:
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🚀 RUNNING COMPLETE YTD ANALYSIS WITH AUTOMATIC CHART...
=== DATAFRAME PREPARATION ===
Date range: 2011-08-18 00:00:00 to 2025-06-25 00:00:00
Total data points: 5028
Price range: $2.24 to $111673.28

Using 2025 for YTD calculation
========================================================================================================================
                           ENHANCED DRIFT RATE COMPARISON - HISTORICAL vs YTD
========================================================================================================================
Method               Hist Daily   Hist Annual %   YTD Daily    YTD Annual %    Difference %   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Simple Mean          0.003249        118.61%    0.001085         39.60%        -79.00%
Geometric Mean       0.001831         94.96%    0.000844         30.81%        -64.15%
Log Returns          0.001829         66.76%    0.001085         39.60%        -27.16%
Volatility-Adjusted  0.002334         85.21%    0.000977         35.64%        -49.56%
Rolling Window       0.002157         78.71%    0.001085         39.60%        -39.11%
Regime-Aware         0.003249        118.61%    0.000844         30.81%        -87.79%

SUMMARY STATISTICS:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Metric                    Historical      YTD             Difference     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Annual %               93.81%         36.01%        -57.80%
Median Annual %                90.09%         37.62%        -52.46%
Std Dev %                      19.43%          3.93%        -15.49%

🎯 KEY INSIGHTS:
--------------------------------------------------
📉 YTD performance is UNDERPERFORMING historical median
• Historical median: 90.09% annually
• YTD compound annual: 30.81% annually
• Performance gap: -59.27%

📊 MONTE CARLO RECOMMENDATIONS:
--------------------------------------------------
• Conservative (lower): 0.308144 daily (11247.3% annual)
• Aggressive (higher): 0.900859 daily (32881.4% annual)
• Blended (70% hist, 30% YTD): 0.723045 daily (26391.1% annual)
• Historical median: 0.900859 daily (32881.4% annual)
• YTD-based: 0.308144 daily (11247.3% annual)
• Low historical variation allows using either mean or median


================================================================================
🎯 KEY YTD METRICS
================================================================================
📅 YTD Period: 2025-01-01 to 2025-06-25
⏱️  Days Elapsed: 175
📈 YTD Total Return: +13.74%

🎯 YTD Annual Drift: +30.81%
📊 Historical Median: +90.09%
🔄 Difference: -59.27% (UNDERPERFORMING)

📊 GENERATING PERFORMANCE CHART...
No description has been provided for this image 
📊 CHART SUMMARY:
   • YTD Period: 2025-01-02 to 2025-06-25
   • Current YTD Return: +13.7%
   • Expected at Benchmark Pace: +43.2%
   • Performance Gap: -29.4%
   • Status: UNDERPERFORMING benchmark

💾 SAVE THESE VALUES:
ytd_annual_drift = 0.308144
historical_median = 0.900859
performance_gap = -59.27%

📈 Chart generated successfully!
   • Final YTD return: 13.7%
   • Final benchmark: 43.2%
   • Final gap: -29.4%

🎯 MARKET SIMILARITY ANALYSIS - NON-OVERLAPPING VERSION
============================================================
📊 Calculating market features...